UPDATED, Saturday AM: Refresh for more analysis and chart A fresh take with a new cast, and new director except for the aliens, A Quiet Place: Day One, is deafening its $40M+ forecast with a franchise record opening weekend of $53M and day of $22.5M. Last night, box office analysts saw both A Quiet Place: Day One and Disney/Pixar’s third weekend of Inside Out 2 fighting over No. 1. That drag-out fight between big eared aliens and adolescent emotions will continue throughout today. Disney is figuring a massive swing for the third weekend of Inside Out 2 between $55M-$59M.
While that doesn’t appear to look like a close call at the weekend box office, there are other industry calculations to reflect that. More to come.
While Disney/Pixar’s Inside Out 2 clocked $17.1M yesterday, which is the same exact amount of cash as Toy Story 4‘s June 28th Friday gross back in 2019, some aren’t calculating that the studio gets a +35% bump today over yesterday. The reason being is that as kids get out of school, family moviegoing traffic shifts to the weekdays, so the matinee Saturday pop isn’t as robust. Inside Out 2 is already up 14% over Friday this AM and will end the day up in the twenty percentile. The third Saturday for a Pixar film is wild: While Incredibles 2‘s third Saturday to Friday was +31%, Elemental was only +22% and Lightyear +18%.
It’s clear that audiences had a want-to-see this for A Quiet Place third time around. Why? It’s a whole fresh new take in a universe they love. Also evident that moviegoers were passionate about heading out this weekend was the fact that they shelled out to see the movie in the best format possible, meaning Imax and PLF which are accounting for a 41% share of ticket sales so far. Never mind the B+ CinemaScore, which is the same grade as the first film. Genre audiences are always hard. In Screen Engine/Comscore audience exits, A Quiet Place: Day One gets four stars. A massive diverse crowd is showing up to the Paramount movie with 35% Caucasian, 32% Latino and Hispanic, 20% Black, 10% Asian and 4% Native American/other.
UPDATED, Friday PM: Disney/Pixar’s Inside Out 2 is heading to a $17 million-plus Friday, which will put the sequel on track for a third weekend of $60M at 4,440 theaters, -41%, making it one of the seven best third weekends ever. Oscar buzz is already developing around the movie, and rightfully so: it’s responsible for bringing audiences back to cinemas. Stateside gross will stand at $471.8M by EOD Sunday.
Yesterday, the pic’s global cume of $863M, already outstripped the lifetime total of the original 2015 title, which ended its run at $858.8M.
‘Inside Out 2’
Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures / courtesy Everett Collection
Right now, Paramount’s $67M prequel A Quiet Place: Day One is seeing a $20.5M Friday at 3,707 theaters, which again, is an opening-day franchise record for the movie ahead of the first two movies’ $18.8M and $19.3M starts, respectively. However, the three-day per many is being spotted at $48.5M, which would rep the second best three-day start in the series. The Rotten Tomatoes audience score is 70%, which is behind the first film’s 83% and second’s 92%. By the way, the current three-day projection is ahead of the $40M that was being spotted on tracking.
‘Horizon: An American Saga’
Warner Bros.
Kevin Costner independently financed Western Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 1 is posting a $4.3M-$4.6M Friday for a $12M-$13M opening at 3,334 locations for New Line. Whatever this movie cost — some say the first installment is $50M, others $100M — the opening isn’t far from the start of the multihyphenate’s Open Range, which debuted to $14M. We can throw fruit at the opening, but realize this: This is $12M-$13M more in this marketplace, and for exhibition, that’s nothing to complain about. The question is whether the sequel, currently scheduled to be released August 16, 2024, sticks to the landing strip or gets jettisoned to Max. RT score of 71% is better than the 38% that film critics are giving it.
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Sony’s fourth frame of Bad Boys: Ride or Die at 3,312 theaters is looking at around $3M today, and a three-day of $11M, -41%, for a running total of $163.9M by Sunday.
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Pushing its way into fifth place is the Bollywood title Kalki 2898 AD, with a $2M Friday, $6.5M three-day and running total less than $12M for the four-day at 1,049 sites. The movie grossed around $5.4M on Thursday. The feature, written and directed by Nag Ashwin, takes place in a future ruled by elites who revel in absolute luxury while leaving the rest of the world in darkness. There, a warrior must rise to protect the one who will bring a new tomorrow in this action-packed science fiction epic. That’s the logline. See the trailer below. Critics says 71% on Rotten Tomatoes, but audiences differ at 95%. More updates as we have them.
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FRIDAY AM: We told you it was a franchise record in regards to previews for the Quiet Place franchise with A Quiet Place: Day One, and that’s what it is with a now-revised $6.8M total. That’s higher than Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes ($6.6M), which went on to a $58.4M opening. If this prequel legs out like that, or even north of $50M, that’s a fantastic 3-day take for a third installment.
Meanwhile, New Line’s Kevin Costner pic Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 1 came up short from where we saw it, with $800,000. Oh, no — but keep in mind that pic’s audience isn’t a Thursday night preview one.
Inside Out 2 did $11.2M Thursday, -12% from Wednesday for a second week of $156.8M and running total of $411.99M.
It’s a going to be a rich weekend at the box office. Last year at this time, Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny led with a $60.3M 3-day, for an overall $128.2M weekend. It’s within reason that we will beat that marketplace total by Sunday.
THURSDAY PM: Paramount’s prequel A Quiet Place: Day One is heading to a franchise-record preview night between $5M-$6M, several sources inform us. Showtimes began at 3 p.m.
Tonight’s figure easily ranks ahead of the $4.3M made by the first movie in 2018 and the $4.8M made by A Quiet Place: Part II on its Thursday heading into Memorial Day weekend 2021, when summer kicked off for recently reopened theaters.
Those two movies were directed by John Krasinski, while the prequel is helmed and written by Pig director Michael Sarnoski. A Quiet Place: Day One tells the story about how the ferocious aliens with the highly sensitive ears landed on Earth in NYC. Oscar winner Lupita Nyong’o, Joseph Quinn, Alex Wolff and Djimon Hounsou star.
Reviews are great at 86% certified fresh, though they are the lowest of the franchise to date after Chapter 1 (96%) and Chapter 2 (91%). CinemaScore comes out Friday, but A Quiet Place earned a B+, while Part II landed an A-.
Tracking had this prequel at $40M+ for the weekend, and given that it’s a genre film, it can be frontloaded. The first movie’s previews repped 23% of its $18.8M Friday, heading to a $50.2M 3-day weekend, while the second installment’s previews repped 25% of its first Friday of $19.3M for a 3-day of $47.5M, 4-day of $57M over Memorial Day weekend. Too soon to tell if there’s a ‘5’ in front of Day One‘s opening. The Platinum Dunes production is rated PG-13. Paramount held the New York premiere Wednesday night at AMC Lincoln Center.
Warner Bros.
At this point in time, we’re hearing around $1M-$1.5M for Kevin Costner’s pricey three-hour epic, Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 1. At that level, it could get the New Line theatrical release, which is a distribution deal, to $12M. Realize this older-skewing title is a slow burn, not a one-shot, opening-weekend film. Best to assess this movie’s success in its first 10 days, as many take a summer break this week.
Critical reviews stand at 41% on Rotten Tomatoes, which isn’t as bad as Costner’s The Postman at 14%, though below Waterworld‘s 47% Rotten (which he produced) and under his 2003 film Open Range (79% certified fresh), and his 1990 multi-Oscar winner Dances with Wolves (87% certified fresh). Of his westerns, Open Range opened to the highest at $14M, was released by Disney, and ended its run at $58.3M.
‘Inside Out 2’
Disney
As expected, Disney/Pixar’s Inside Out 2 will rule the weekend with $55M-$60M. The pic crossed $400M in its 13th day of release on Wednesday. That figure is pacing 2% ahead of Barbie, which stood at $394.4M at the same point and time and finaled at $636.2M. The Kelsey Mann-directed sequel will click past the $1 billion global mark this weekend, becoming the 54th title to reach that feat.
